This article will venture away from our new “Wirst Take” style that we will be using in the 2022-2023 Fantasy Football season. That style is meant for more fun and interaction, but this article is not for fun (but hopefully SOME interaction). It is meant to make you mentally unstable baboons think. So if this task seems impossible, please stop reading before your wife calls the homeowners' association on you for smoking up the house as the gears in your brains become overloaded.
In this article, we will be examining the history of the Threat Level: Midnight Dynasty League rookie drafts to determine which of us actually has any talent in drafting, and which of us should stick to our day jobs, trading away picks for any hope of keeping value. This article may change how you value certain picks, as you will see some star players found in the 3rd round, but then you will see many players who have yet to have a fantasy playable season drafted all around the few gems. Keep in mind, this is only drafting the player. You may draft a 4th round gem and cut him before the season because your brother thought it would be funny to draft the star RB for UTEP in NCAA 14. That still counts as finding a gem. Or, you could go 3/3 drafting good players in the first round but never have a top-three finish (John).
POINT SYSTEM
Green = 2 points for drafting a good player who has given multiple good seasons of fantasy usefulness (or high projections for 2022); Orange = 1 point if the player gave 1-2 playable years or it is too early to tell; Red = 0 points which means that player gave you very little. Then, the total points generated are divided by the total number of picks. The 1st and 2nd round will be graded separately. If you found playable players in the 3rd or 4th round, those are also listed below. These are the drafts that have occurred from 2017-2021:
1st Round Efficiency:
John: 6/3 = 2.00 Green (3)
Baj: 2/1 = 2.00 Green (1)
Zack: 10/6 = 1.67 Green (5), Red (1)
Reagan: 13/8 = 1.63 Green (6), Orange (1), Red (1)
Corey: 8/5 = 1.60 Green (4), Red (1)
Zach: 8/5 = 1.60 Green (4), Red (1)
David: 6/4 = 1.50 Green (3), Red (1)
Tom: 11/8 = 1.38 Green (4), Orange (3), Red (1)
Zeke: 6/6 = 1.00 Green (3), Red (3)
Heery: 3/3 = 1.00 Green (1), Orange (1), Red (1)
Jordan: 5/6 = 0.83 Green (2), Orange (1), Red (3)
Bryce: 2/4 = 0.50 Green (1), Red (3)
Austin: 1/3 = 0.33 Orange (1), Red (2)
2nd Round Efficiency:
Zach: 5/4 = 1.25 Green (2), Orange (1), Red (1)
David: 5/4 = 1.25 Green (2), Orange (1), Red (1)
Jordan: 7/6 = 1.17 Green (3), Orange (1), Red (2)
Zeke: 5/5 = 1.00 Green (1), Orange (3), Red (1)
Heery: 4/4 = 1.00 Green (1), Orange (2), Red (1)
Corey: 6/7 = 0.86 Green (3), Red (4)
John: 5/6 = 0.83 Green (1), Orange (3), Red (2)
Reagan: 4/5 = 0.80 Green (2), Red (3)
Zack: 5/7 = 0.71 Green (1), Orange (3), Red (3)
Austin: 2/3 = 0.67 Green (1), Red (2)
Tom: 2/4 = 0.50 Green (1), Red (3)
Baj: 0/1 = 0.00 Red (1)
Bryce: No second round picks lol
3rd Round Successes:
David (3): Jonnu Smith, Mark Andrews, Terry McLaurin
Zeke (3): Chris Godwin, Dallas Goedert, Elijah Mitchell
Zach (2): Patrick Mahomes, Pat Freiermuth
Heery (2): Tarik Cohen, Hunter Renfrow
Jordan (1): Amon Ra St. Brown
Reagan (1): Nyheim Hines
4th Round Successes:
Heery (1): Dalton Schultz
Jordan (1): Aaron Jones
Bettis (1): Jalen Hurts
Zeke (1): Josh Allen
Individual Pick Efficiency:
1.1 10/5 = 2.00 Green (5)
1.2 5/5 = 1.00 Green (2), Orange (1), Red (2)
1.3 8/5 = 1.60 Green (4), Red (1)
1.4 7/5 = 1.40 Green (3), Orange (1), Red (1)
1.5 8/5 = 1.60 Green (4), Red (1)
1.6 6/5 = 1.20 Green (3), Red (2)
1.7 10/5 = 2.00 Green (5)
1.8 5/5 = 1.00 Green (2), Orange (1), Red (2)
1.9 4/5 = 0.80 Green (2), Red (3)
1.10 5/5 = 1.00 Green (2), Orange (1), Red (2)
1.11 6/5 = 1.20 Green (3), Red (2)
1.12 5/5 = 1.00 Green (2), Orange (1), Red (2)
Things that stand out:
John (3/3) and Baj (1/1) the best drafters?? Interesting. But hard to argue against AJ Brown (1.6), Miles Sanders (1.3), and DJ Moore (1.9) for John.
1st Round: 37 good, 6 okay, 18 bad. Most 1st round picks hit, but it makes the BAD misses that much worse (looking at you N’Keal Harry and the entire 2018 RB class).
2nd Round: 18 good, 14 okay, 24 bad is interesting. Mid-late 2nds are hard to hit on.
Bryce making ZERO 2nd round picks is hilarious. Perennially ALL IN (but perennially never wins anything).
With Austin Bettis’ career 44-35 record, it is shocking how poorly he has drafted. Trevor Lawrence at 8, Ke’Shawn Vaughn at 11, John Ross at 12. Granted, they were late firsts but they have provided nothing so far (and is the reason he is in his current predicament).
David finding Mark Andrews and Terry McLaurin in the 3rd (he never picked up Terry).
Zeke finding Chris Godwin, Dallas Goedert, and Elijah Mitchell in the 3rd. That is a starter at RB, WR, and TE (except only 1 remains on the team).
Zack drafting from the heart in Round 2 has not paid off, Taywan Taylor (Titans), Anthony Miller (Memphis), Darrell Henderson (Memphis),
Jordan finding the one 4th round gem RB and not keeping him. Ouch.
Draft QB and TE in the 3rd or 4th round for value.
Hopefully gone are the days of forfeited picks for tanking. I think the most fun and best method to take out gray area is to enact the Reagan Rule™ which would make it so if you played an injured player, a truly awful player, an inaccurate kicker, or a bad defense, you pay $5 to the pot that goes to the champion for each instance a starting player gives you 0.00 or less points in a week.
Get pick 1 or pick 7 to have the best chance at success.
If you blow 1.1 you are big yikes. Does Reagan ruin the perfect 1.1 streak with Breece going into a committee? Doubt it but would love it.
Also lots of pressure on Bettis to hit on his 1.7. Olave better be good!
Zack hitting on picks 1,2,3 is not impressive at all. And no credit should be given.
Observed Team Strategies
Zack: Continue to take memphis players, while accumulating easy picks in the top 3 of the draft
Reagan: Select mid round 1 running backs. And churn Wide receivers in and out of his team so he can draft more young ones that he will trade 1-2 years later
Bettis: Trade any first round picks for a nice meal for the family. It will be one night of happiness for the kids. While he doesn’t have to endure 2-3 years of watching his bust sit on his bench.
Jordan: take talented Running backs, and let someone else take the non-talented RBs
Zeke: Trade 2nd-round picks for 3rd-round picks. At face value seems foolish, but statistically, makes more sense for his skills.
Carmody: This one's still in the lab. We're trying to pin down a strategy for Carmody but he may be the most average?
Heery: Outsource 1st-round selections to someone else. Maybe consult with abacus-wielding orangutans from planet of the apes to help with selections.
Corey: Remember where you came from (early firsts). And don’t forget — oh wait. He already traded away his picks.
Bryce: Come to terms that young players are okay to have.
David: Maybe one day join us for the drafting festivities. But I guess the 3rds work out for him
Tom: Package 2nds to get into the first
John: Trade your 3rd and 4th-round picks for old guys that could maybe add value. Or a cool new nerf gun.
コメント