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  • Writer's pictureMichael Scarn

Wirst Take // Ep. 3 // Week 1

From the desk of Reagan:


I have played in a variety of fantasy football leagues: dynasty, re-draft, best ball, 12-team, 16-team, 8-team (forgive me). I will say this about TLM league: it is by far the most knowledgable league I’ve played in.


I feel like every conversation I have with people, they value their players properly. Sometimes a bit overvalued and sometimes less. I will actually go on record saying I actually probably overvalue my players the most, but a lot of it is due to falling in love with guys and having a hard time letting go.


But good gravy do y’all overvalue draft picks. I’m not saying top-3 picks, those are clearly valuable. I’m saying picks 7-12, where the hit rate is about 45% and some of you guys have already Crayola-markered in your rosters for the next three years thinking they are for sure hits. Even picks 4-6 have a hit rate of 60%... So, unless some of you are drafting savants, which none of us really are — more than likely 40-50% of your picks will not turn out.


So IN THEORY, If you have seven picks in a draft class. You can rely on four of them to turn out, which is half of a fantasy lineup. So if you have no other players on your team, you will not be able to rebuild with just 7 picks. You will need a combination of hitting on 2nd rounders as well as some guys on your team to compete in two or three years.


And I Know what you’re thinking,

“BuT ReaGan, The 2023 CLasS is LoaDed”

or maybe even,

“WhAt MakEs YoU aN Expert oN ThE Topic”


B*TCH I sucked for four years...


“You think tanking is your ally? You merely adopted tanking. I was born in it. Brought into the league by it. I didn’t see the light of competing until I was a man”.

⁃ Bane

⁃ Reagan



But what am I getting at here? The league, as competitive as it is. Has become very black and white. Upper class versus lower class. We are losing our middle class. Which can be fun for the four teams competing (Tom, Reagan, Zack, Corey). The lower class continues to sell their players to the upper class, hoping for picks that are nearly impossible to find. So they scrap for 2nd and 3rd rounders while the competitors continue to stack rosters.


AND THE THING IS - Outside of Corey's team, Tom, Reagan, and Zack all still have another two or three-year window.


I think there is tanking wisely, coupling picks while keeping young players who could have future value. And then there is tanking and banking on picks to bring you up from the gutter. Heery and Bettis are doing it right. Heery still has three top-6 picks next year, and honestly his roster might make playoffs. Bettis has a bunch of young picks from this year, and a plethora of picks in the 2nd to maneuver.


Jordan and Bryce have a sh*t-ton of lottery tickets. Bless their hearts, but Bryce is gonna be hitting his mid-life crisis by the time he competes. Meanwhile, Jordan's kids are going to be wheeling him out of the retirement home by the time he makes playoffs.


This isn’t a slight on either of them. I actually think Jordan and Bryce can both maneuver picks and turn things around quickly.


BUT, tanking is dangerous. It is way too easy to miss on picks and lose in trades in hopes of getting more lottery tickets to feel good about having nothing. Trust me, I learned the hard way. Thankfully, I hit on Justin Jefferson with the 8th pick and moved him for a haul. So there is a way out, but that way out is not easy, and I had to hit on a ton of trades (a lot of which were luck) to pull myself out. It is a miserable experience. A lot of scoffing, "Oh, brother," and many sad Sundays. It has become compete or tank, creating an enormous gap between teams, which can suck the joy out of a lot of weeks.


Don’t have a sad Sunday.

Tank smarter.


 

Heery (AH): Welcome back to Wirst Take brought to you by Preparation H: really useful for when you play Zack… Hello gentlemen. Football's back.

Zack (ZV): Yippeee!

Reagan (RC): We made it--My vengeance will be sweet.


AH: How’d the sweet taste of pigskin hit your lips this past weekend?

RC: I have a confession.

AH: Usher has many. What is it?

RC: I missed most of Saturday as it was my girlfriend's birthday and I went on a weekend trip with her. We had fun. I feel shame

ZV: Reagan I am so disappointed. You used to only care about football and the endless yearning to try to beat me in fantasy football.

AH: Well Reagan that’s sad and also good, I suppose.

RC: I think I've made enough moves this offseason to warrant a single day off. But still, guilt looms large.

ZV: As it should. Georgia and Alabama will be a clear best and 2nd best team in some order. Notre Dame held up better than expected in a #5 vs #2 game with the 2-seed being a SEVENTEEN-point favorite. Also, Ryan Silverfield needs to go for all the Memphis fans in the chat.


AH: I watched quite a bit of football myself. But this week we have our beloved NFL guys out there. Sundays are back. What storyline this season are you most excited for?

ZV: Dameon Pierce RB1 overall. CHOO CHOO!

RC: Dammit. I knew that was coming. Trey Lance vs. Justin Fields should be a thing. I think. I will watch, but will probably not find joy. We do need someone to keep Bryce in check in the Baker Mayfield revenge game. I just want a single massacre. Either in fantasy or real-life. Nothing like some Week 1 slander on some poor, poor team.


AH: I’m excited for all these new face in different places out there. Gonna be fun. Fantasy finishes: Who makes playoffs? Who is forced into tank-dom?

ZV: For TLM, the race for the top and race for the bottom are awesome. Top four are Zack, Reagan, Tom, and Corey. One will fall off from injuries and bad luck. But who? Other 3 will be in a war during the semifinals. Bottom two Jordan vs Heery (via Bryce). Heery taking Aaron Rodgers to back up Justin Herbert was purely to make Bryce worse, then Jordan continues unloading solid players for picks. This is truly a race to the bottom. My top 6 are:

1. Zack

2. Reagan

3. Corey

4. Tom

5. David

6. HEERY. You heard it here first


RC: Corey and David against the injury bug. Reagan and Zack vs. their own ego. Carmody and HEERY? Holy sh*t I just realized Heery might make the 6th seed...

AH: It’s nice to know I’m in your thoughts guys.

ZV: Bottom are the obvious Jordan, Bettis, and Bryce. John and Zeke gonna mess around and make it interesting, though.

AH: I find John and I to be closer than it appears.

Reagan: Tom's team is odd though. Great WRs. RB2s. And now 250-pound Lamar.

ZV: Then Zach just kinda hanging out fighting for seed 5 or 6.

RC: Electric move trading for Dawson Knox. I think him realizing he had three Dolphins starting got him antsy.


AH: Anyone have some fun hot-takes about this week's matchups? Underrated or overrated teams, players, or the like?

RC: The loser of the Zack/Reagan matchup scores 160 points. Bryce still beats John. No rookie WR goes for 50 yards.

AH: Bryce will absolutely not beat John.

ZV:

Zack vs Reagan

Corey vs Tom

Zeke vs David

Only real interesting matchups. With Bryce tanking and Heery buying, lots of allure taken out of those matchups.

AH:

How many times does Bryce come at John on the chats?

RC: Depends on how many touchdowns Baker throws. I think he goes for five.

ZV: My bold prediction? Someone will have to pay the $5 Reagan Rule fee in Week 1.

RC: I'm starting to think that Bryce died and it's really Zack managing his team. What's the over/under for the Reagan Rule season long?

ZV: Bryce will have one half-hearted attack on John calling him a virgin or something.

AH: Right after the birth of his third child lmao

ZV: 9.5

RC: OVER!

AH: Smash over...

RC: I was thinking like 26.5?

ZV: With no kickers or defense, and ppl actually having to try?

RC: One or two each week. Sh*t happens.

ZV: Let’s do 13.5 and I’ll take under for $10.

RC: Okay, I'll do the over on 13.5 for $10.

ZV: Which as we know I will get the Reagan Rule money for winning again. Heery--add it to the website!

AH: Hoorayyyyy!!! Content!

RC: What happens if Brady or Dak don't finish top-12. Do you still win?

AH: Very interesting.

ZV: No. Quarterbacks are so important in this league with the ridiculous amount of points they get (which I will try to vote down next offseason).

RC: Zack really trying to crush numbers over there...We already tried and failed. The people are stuck in their ways.

AH: The quarterback is more important than any other position on the field, so why shouldn't they have some points attached?

RC: It's the old people at church who refuse to get their moldy pews from the 1930s replaced with new cushy chairs.

ZV: Step into 2018, peasants.

AH: Riiiiiiiight...

RC: TLM Blog takes on the Peasants.

AH: And whomst be the peasants?

RC: It's to be determined at a later date.

ZV: Anyone stuck in their ways.


AH: My favorite and final question is this: who’s currently got the best team name and who’s got the worst?

RC: I have to change mine still but I will take the heat for now. I like ABs name to be honest. Relevant. Catchy. Well thought.

AH: AB’s is very creative, but the fact it doesn’t fit onto one line and has the ellipses (...) makes me cringe.

RC: John hasn’t changed his yet. Kinda too early to call

ZV: Best: Bryce is still really good, even though Baker sucks and the history of 1st Round QBs being successful is 1 (Tannehill), but he can give it a go one more year at least. Zach Wilson… Mother Tucker and Christian Watson, Sinner Watson are elite new names as well. Worst: Reagan obviously is terrible, not funny, and not relevant. Saw my name and sour milk was a letdown. Myles and Moore is also old and neither player is on his team anymore. Won Man Pony Show was funny for a couple weeks but now we’re past that and I just projected David 6th. Sour Cream & Tonyan is just iffy because he’s not the most relevant feller in the league. The rest are good.

AH: I’m not a David name fan either. Gimmicks are fun for only a short window.

RC: John and I will undoubtedly have new ones come kickoff.

ZV: John traded Myles Gaskin midseason last year he has had plenty of time.


RC: 3 SLEEPS BABY!

AH: Three days and John will not change names...

ZV: We will shame him in articles until he does it.

RC: Yeah, probably...On both accounts


AH: Well, the red light's on in the camera facing us, signaling that the commercials are coming. Thanks for watching and listening while you fold laundry. Up next is “pardon the interception” hosted by Brett Favre and Jake Delhomme with special guest: Eli Manning.

Threat Level: Midnight Nation: Let's Ride.

ZV: Let's Ride.

RC: Let's Ride.


 


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